Authors

• Nozer D‎. Singpurwalla
• Philip Wilson

Abstract

In this paper we contribute to the general philosophical‎ ‎question
as to whether empirical testing can ever prove a physical law.‎ ‎Problems that
lead to this question arise under several contexts‎, ‎and the ‎matter has been
addressed by the likes of Bayes and Laplace‎. ‎After pointing‎ ‎out that a
Bayesian approach is the proper way to address this problem‎, ‎we‎ ‎show that
the answer depends on what we start with‎. ‎Namely‎, ‎under certain‎ ‎prior
assumptions‎, ‎a finite amount of testing can lead to the conclusion of‎ ‎total
trustworthiness‎, ‎though such priors could be unrealistic‎. ‎However‎, ‎we ‎do
produce a new class of priors under which a finite amount of testing can‎ ‎lead
to a high degree of trustworthiness‎, ‎at a relatively fast pace‎. ‎We use ‎the
scenario of software testing as a way to motivate and discuss our‎ ‎development.

Keywords

• Bayes\' law‎
• ‎discrete‎ ‎priors‎
• ‎Jeffreys\' prior‎
• ‎reliability‎
• ‎sample size‎
• ‎software testing‎
• ‎stockpile stewardship‎. ‎